MAP IT
A look at the tools of political prognostication and what they tell us about what will happen at the polls, with Matthew Green, professor of politics at The Catholic University of America.
Profs and Pints DC presents: “Predicting November’s Election Results,” a look at the tools of political prognostication and what they tell us about what will happen at the polls, with Matthew Green, professor of politics at The Catholic University of America.
With the approach of any major election comes the emergence of pollsters, pundits and, yes, even professors who claim to know how the voting will go. Few of them explain how they reached their conclusions, even if they conflict with the predictions of others.
Profs and Pints is bringing you a talk to help you see through the spin, wishful thinking, and wild guesses about the 2026 midterm elections.
Professor Matthew Green, a scholar of congressional and electoral politics, will pull back the curtain to show you the tools that political scientists and professional prognosticators use in forecasting election outcomes. He will discuss some of the common misconceptions about what influences the vote, and he will review the strengths and weaknesses of various predictive models and the assumptions that lie behind each of them.
Professor Green also will examine several factors unique to this year's elections, including the impacts of mid-decade redistricting and the public's views of President Trump. He will discuss why many models predict that Democrats will gain seats in both the House and Senate but assign a lower probability of the Democrats winning control of the Senate than gaining a majority in the House.
Come learn about the art and science of forecasting election outcomes and how to be a better consumer of election-year predictions. (Advance tickets: $13.50 plus sales tax and processing fees. Doors: $17, or $15 with a student ID. Listed time is for doors. The talk starts 30 minutes later.)
Elephant and donkey icons by DonkeyHotey / Creative Commons.
